Should the Cubs Sign Adam Dunn?
Adam Dunn is set to be a free agent this offseason, and with the likely departure of Derrek Lee from the Cubs, there is a hole at first base that isn’t likely to be filled from within. Personally, I think it’s a great idea to push hard for Dunn. The Cubs have no viable first base options and Dunn makes the most sense of all the free agents available.
The Positives
Dunn’s bat is extremely productive. Since 2004 (and including what he’s done to this point this season), Dunn has averaged 39 homers, 98 RBI, and a line of .253/.381/.534 and an OPS of .915. On top of that, he’s got a career wOBA of .379, which is very good.
An overlooked aspect of Adam Dunn is his durability. Since 2002 when Dunn became a full time player, he’s averaged 153 games a year, and that includes a 2003 season that he only played in 116 games. Since that season, he’s averaging 158 games a year. That’s consistency, which for a player with his caliber of bat is very important.
The Negatives
This one is pretty obvious for Dunn; it’s his defense. He’s made the switch to first base full time this season with the Nationals and has actually done better than expected, posting a -.8 UZR (-1.3 UZR/150) so far this year, meaning he’s a little bit below average. If he has somehow turned himself into an average defensive player, he’s increased his value exponentially.
However, the question has to be asked about the affect of having a less sure handed first baseman on the growth of Starlin Castro. The kid is still somewhat erratic with his throws, and having Derrek Lee there to cull some of the bad ones took some of the pressure off the youngster. Dunn’s a question mark over there.
Another possible negative is his age. He’s 30 this season, which isn’t over the hill by any means. However, if Dunn’s looking for a big 4-5 year deal, that would put him into his mid-30s which will likely be declining years for him. We’ve already seen enough of decline years on the Cubs the past two seasons.
The Verdict
I think you have to go after Dunn if you want to compete in 2011. If the Cubs decide to cut bait and play for 2012, then you can wait it out and hope to sign one of the big 3 first baseman (Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder). This strategy is inherently risky, as they all three could easily re-sign with their current teams, or be traded and extended by their new team.
The only way Dunn makes sense, however, is if he is willing to accept a 3 year deal with a 4th option year at most. We can’t have any more money tied up in old players who aren’t producing, and the new face of Cubs contracts can start this summer with Adam Dunn.
The Cubs SHOULD Trade Zambrano
[picappgallerysingle id="9524093"]Recently, the Big Dead Side Bar came out with an article talking about why the Cubs shouldn’t trade volatile right hander Carlos Zambrano. I’m going to take the opposite stance, right here on Ivy Report.
Luis- “He has tossed 24 sharp innings over his last four starts, compiling a 2.25 earned run average and picking up a pair of wins in the process. In the 12 starts since his Opening Day debacle, Big Z has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA.”
Brett- ” Those are somewhat misleading numbers. Yes- he does have 2 quality starts out of those 4, but he also walked 16 guys in those starts to 15 strike outs. He gave up 20 hits as well, so that tells everyone- runners over the average of those 4 starts- were on base at a real high level. Which means he was somewhat lucky he didn’t give up more runs if you look at his BABIP. You can’t sustain that luck so over the norm of 32 starts- if he was giving up that many base runners…well…bad things would likely happen. Carlos Zambrano’s stuff has dropped dramatically and I’ll talk more about that later on in this post.
Luis- “Or when we analyzed his career numbers and realized he’s the kind of pitcher who gets stronger as the season goes on? With his bullpen struggles a thing of the past, Zambrano is back in his comfort zone — mowing down hitters and eating up innings.”
Brett- Analyzing numbers is one thing, but watching him pitch is another. Carlos Zambrano is NOT mowing down hitters at the rate someone getting paid 18 million dollars should be doing. Getting stronger as the season goes on? What does that matter when he hasn’t thrown much this year due to a series of problems…on and off the field?
Luis- “What a healthy Zambrano provides is a power arm who excels at eating innings and inducing groundball outs, a much-needed quality for a starting pitcher who makes his home at Clark and Addison. From 2003 to 2008, Big Z averaged 32 starts and 211 innings per season. In 2009, his six-year run in which he made at least 30 starts and threw 200 innings was snapped. However, Zambrano still was able to gut out 28 starts in a pedestrian 9-win campaign.”
Brett- First of all, Carlos Zambrano is healthy, and 88-91 in terms of velocity is no longer a power arm. He USED to excel at inducing ground balls, and he hasn’t been that pitcher in quite some time. 2008 was a long time ago, which is why it’s impossible to really state the claim. 9 wins in 2009 in 28 starts? That’s brutal. That’s even worse when you look at his contract. That’s a far cry from being dominant.
Luis- “In a world where Cubs fans have been treated to the likes of Rich Harden’s five-inning stints of dominance, El Toro’s durability should stand out as one of his few redeeming qualities. Not to say an $18 million inning’s eater is something to brag about, but Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would be writing Hall of Fame speeches at this moment if success in simulated games counted for anything.”
Brett- Does it really truly matter when we’re talking about durability from your “ace?” I mean think about it- what’s more important when your talking about your number 1 starter? Durability and innings? Or wins? Durability is important for your 3, 4, and 5 starters…as well as your number 1 and 2…but when that becomes the most important statistic to determine your worth…you know your no longer considered elite. Getting paid 18 million dollars demands elite. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will never be forgotten in Chicago- the problem is comparing them to Zambrano. Both are and always will be extremely different. Besides…they didn’t punch out a catcher in the dugout…throw numerous temper tantrums…suspended from the team for insubordination etc.
Luis- “So, why are we so willing to trade away a guy who has been good for eating 200 innings and making 30 starts over the course of what is now a 10-year career?
Oh, that’s right. Because he’s a little bit crazy.
Deal with it.”
Brett- I’m willing to trade the guy because A) he’s not as good as he once was. Check that- I’m willing to trade him because he’s not even a shell of who he once was. This is a guy that used to throw a heavy sinker in the mid to upper 90′s. He never had a good breaking ball, or command of a splitty, but that sinker was unhittable. Now that sinker sits in the upper 80′s, and no longer has the heavy movement which means he needs a bigger and better arsenal. Problem is- he doesn’t have anything else. He still can’t command anything, and IMO his slider is below average in terms of depth and break. His walks are up, strike out’s are down, and hitters are producing harder hit balls off him. That’s troubling. B) I’m willing to trade Carlos Zambrano because it would get a mediocre to below average pitchers’ contract off the books to a certain degree, while getting at least something for him. The Cubs can no longer continue living off what Z did in 2004. The organization has stuck it’s neck out for Zambrano time and time again, only to watch Zambrano not live up to his end of the bargain. This is a team with a huge payroll, and frankly- there’s hopefully someone out there that’s going to take a shot on Zambrano. Little do they know they’ll be getting a 4 or 5 in return…not the ace of 4-5 years ago. C) I’m tired of dealing with it. And best be sure- so are the Cubs. It’s time to move on from this guy. There’s no other way around it. He won’t be resigned, so why not move him if they can? In terms of replacing him? You have some arms in the system that Luis has talked about, however- I think your best bet is to trade for an ace on the block.
A Zack Greinke like pitcher. I think that’s an extremely realistic possibility if Greinke does in deed want out- because the Cubs have the weapons in the system to pull it off. No matter what happens, this fact remains the same. Carlos Zambrano pitches like a 5th starter/long man in the bullpen. He’s getting paid more money than an ace like Josh Johnson by a significant amount. So…you tell me…What’s there to like?
Are the Chicago Cubs Wasting Carlos Marmol?
[picappgallerysingle id="9554511"]Carlos Marmol has some dominant stuff. He’s been a relatively solid closer for the Cubs this year, and has dominated hitters to record like strike out per 9 innings statistics. The major problem with Marmol has been the walks, but most of the time, he’s been able to pitch out of his wildness. If Carlos Marmol were to hit an open market, every team in baseball would want to add a reliever with the stuff Marmol possesses. Most guys can’t walk 3 an inning and strike out 3 an inning. The best stat I would look at for Marmol would be…opponents batting average against him. (.170)
A lot of baseball fans love Marmol in the 9th because of well…fantasy. However, I’m making the claim that Carlos Marmol is being wasted in the 9th inning a lot of the time. Why? Here are a few reasons.
1) Most closers will blow 3-8 saves a year. You could find and create a closer that can give you an 80%-88% save percentage. Which means you can use your best reliever in the toughest situation in the game…whether it be the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings.
2) A lot of times, the game is won or lost in the 7th and 8th innings. A lot of teams are looking for that 8th inning dominant 1b closer type guy. A few teams have them (example- Daniel Bard in Boston, Mike Adams in San Diego), but most teams don’t. When a team is bringing in a “not as good” reliever in the 7th inning with runners on 2nd and 3rd, up by one…that reliever is going to give up the tying run most of the time, and the go ahead run some of the time, because they don’t possess that strike out stuff.
3) Well what about the 9th inning? If you lose it in the 9th, it’s just as bad as losing it in the 7th. Well that’s not entirely the point I’m making. There are only a couple closers out there who are in a bullpen with 2 other “closers.” San Diego is the perfect example. That bullpen is so good because they have 3 guys on that team that can close on other teams. How many other teams possess that nastiness?
4) The idea is to minimize runs. When the middle relievers give up the 1 run lead in the 7th, how many times is that closer not used? Wouldn’t it be smarter to use your best reliever in the toughest situation? If a reliever can’t hold a 3 run lead in the 9th…well…that’ll be part of the 20-12% chance of the blown save.
I believe the save stat was created by ESPN in some sorts. New Orioles manager Buck Showalter said it best a few weeks ago when he cost Mike Gonzalez AND Alfredo Simon a save because he played match ups.
” I’m well aware of the save rules, but I’m here to win games. That stat matters more to me.”
Buck couldn’t be any more correct with that statement. The idea is to win the game not get a guy a specific stat.
So if that’s the case- why aren’t teams having more than one closer? Why is that closer not being used in the most pressure based situations the game encounters? Why can’t closers get saves…and holds depending on the game situation?
Basically what I’m trying to say is…The Cubs have blown several games this year because they decided not to use Marmol in a situation of which he was needed in most. All because of the save stat.
Chicago Cubs Hiring Mike Quade Full Time?
The Chicago Cubs have given the reigns to Mike Quade for the rest of the year, seemingly his shot to show the organization he’s the man for the job next year and into the future.
Some people out there think that Quade could be given the shot. I am not one of these people.
The Cubs job is going to be the most sought out, hottest job on the market in the offseason as it is every year when the Cubs are searching for a manager. Why? The Cubs haven’t won since 1908 blah blah blah. Whatever. Bobby Valentine has came out and publically stated he’s interested in it. Throw in Fredi Gonzalez who will get a look, Joe Girardi if he does not resign with the Yanks, heck even Joe Torre is mentioned as a candidate. Ryne Sandburg might be the biggest name looked at as he’s been in the Cubs system for 4 years after a career long hall of fame career on the north side.
[picappgallerysingle id="9577226"]So with all these names out there, how can Mike Quade stand out? Well…I don’t think he can.
The Cubs are going to wanna go “sexy” with this selection. A guy free agents are going to want to go play for. If the Cubs are going to go with an inexperienced big league manager, they’re going to Ryno. If they wanna go with experience, Bobby Valentine is the favorite in my opinion. Joe Girardi I just can’t see coming to the Cubs. All reports, and even sources inside the Girardi camp are indicating he’s happy with where he is. That he doesn’t even live in Chicago much anymore if at all. And if the Yanks win the series against this year, how are they going to explain letting the manager walk? They stuck with him through the first post season failure and it worked out last year.
Everyone knows I’m a Ryno supporter for this job. Bobby Valentine I think could be a real good pick as well- but Mike Quade? Am I the only one that just doesn’t see it?
Will Aramis Ramirez Opt Out?
[picappgallerysingle id="9339000"]Aramis Ramirez has hinted at potentially opting out of his contract next year. The question I pose- would this be the worst thing to happen if he did? Aramis has been banged up for the better part of two years, and is owed a TON of money next year. The Cubs as everyone knows, would love to cut some payroll so they could make the appropriate moves to be competitive again next season. I think it really does start with Aramis either way.
When healthy, Aramis has been one of the best offensive third sackers in baseball. There isn’t denying that, and there definitely will be a market for him if he does in deep…opt out.
I honestly don’t believe he will opt out. Aramis knows he won’t be able to get a better deal on the free agent market, and I do think that will be the deciding factor. He recently made a comment about winning, and that he’s not getting younger…well sure. That still doesn’t change the fact that he’s getting owed 14.6 million according to Cots contracts. Aramis took less money to resign with the Cubs, which is why I don’t think he’ll opt out. He’s going to want to finish out this deal after 2011, because I don’t think the Cubs will pick up that option in 2012.
If Aramis stays? What do you do with him? I think that all depends on Tyler Colvin. Colvin is taking grounders at first and likely will have a shot at moving there if he shows he can do it even decently. So a move across the diamond that people are say the Cubs are considering…I would say no. If he’s a cub next year- he’s a third basemen. With Colvin or a free agent coming in at first.
If Aramis goes, what are the Cubs going to do to replace him? Well- that’s a tough situation because the free agent market is going to be brutal in terms of third basemen this off season. There isn’t anyone out there that can produce the way Aramis can. I think the Cubs are going to be in for a real rough season if Aramis isn’t back. He’s been the focal point of the offense for quite some time, and I really don’t think Adam Dunn is going to come over here without seeing some protection in the lineup. Aramis might be the best of all options at this point.
If you can convince him to stay, the Cubs have the potential in the farm system to make a couple trades of immediate impact. Zack Greinke has been mentioned as a Cubs target, Adam Dunn as a free agent is another one. In a relatively weak free agent class? A trade route or even standing pat for one more year makes more sense.
So it looks Aramis has a big decision to make. The problem is…where are his priorities at?
