Carlos Zambrano Quietly Being Awesome

Carlos Zambrano has had a rocky season to say the least. Between getting BABIPed and Heywarded to death on opening day, to being demoted to the bullpen, to being suspended for blowing up, to anger management, Big Z has pretty much seen it all this season.

And now, he’s back to being old Z.

Well…..kind of.

Through June 25, Zambrano had appeared in 22 games and was sitting at an underwhelming 5.66 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP, 5.89 K/9, and a 2.78 BB/9. His season looked to be done after a dugout meltdown and an indefinite suspension.

On July 31st Zambrano returned to the team and since that date has posted a 1.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.11 K/9, and a 3.5 BB/9. The strikeouts and the walks are still an issue for Zambrano, but the good news is his BABIP finally regressed to the mean, falling almost 100 points between the two stints this season. The lack of strikeouts can likely be attributed to Zambrano’s decline in velocity. His pitch speed is down across the board by about 1 MPH, according to fangraphs.com’s pitch f/x data. The decline has been more pronounced than that lately, however.

The other issue is the walks, which Zambrano has always struggled with. Walking a lot of guys while not striking out many is not a good recipe for pitching.

Interestingly enough, Zambrano’s problems earlier in the year were due in large part to just bad luck. Teams weren’t getting great wood on his pitches, but still, they found grass. Zambrano’s still a good pitcher and he can be valuable to this team. Hendry doesn’t need to bend to the loudest fans’ will and trade this guy away for peanuts.

Starlin Castro’s Quest for a Batting Title

Coming into the off day this Thursday, Starlin Castro is hitting a mean .317, good for third in the National League. He is currently behind two outstanding hitters in Carlos Gonzalez (.329) and Joey Votto (.325). However, Castro doesn’t necessarily need those two to fall off the table to win it.

It’s a stretch, to be sure, but if Castro can stay hot all the way through September, he can definitely make a run at the batting title. He should see at least 100 ABs this month, and if he can manage to bat .400 during that time, he’ll be right in the thick of the race.

For a little perspective, there has only been one rookie in the history of baseball to ever win the batting title. Tony Oliva did it for the Minnesota Twins in 1964 in a Rookie of the Year campaign.

If Castro does pull off the unlikely and wins the batting title, I think the BBWAA would have a really tough time not picking him for NL Rookie of the Year. Buster Posey’s been great, but has slumped lately. Jaime Garcia has been fantastic, and would deserve to win it, as well. But doing something only one other player in baseball has ever done when every other player in baseball had a chance to do it (since everyone was a rookie at one point) would be very impressive, and tough to overlook if I was voting.

Should the Cubs Sign Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn is set to be a free agent this offseason, and with the likely departure of Derrek Lee from the Cubs, there is a hole at first base that isn’t likely to be filled from within. Personally, I think it’s a great idea to push hard for Dunn. The Cubs have no viable first base options and Dunn makes the most sense of all the free agents available.

The Positives

Dunn’s bat is extremely productive. Since 2004 (and including what he’s done to this point this season), Dunn has averaged 39 homers, 98 RBI, and a line of .253/.381/.534 and an OPS of .915. On top of that, he’s got a career wOBA of .379, which is very good.

An overlooked aspect of Adam Dunn is his durability. Since 2002 when Dunn became a full time player, he’s averaged 153 games a year, and that includes a 2003 season that he only played in 116 games. Since that season, he’s averaging 158 games a year. That’s consistency, which for a player with his caliber of bat is very important.

The Negatives

This one is pretty obvious for Dunn; it’s his defense. He’s made the switch to first base full time this season with the Nationals and has actually done better than expected, posting a -.8 UZR (-1.3 UZR/150) so far this year, meaning he’s a little bit below average. If he has somehow turned himself into an average defensive player, he’s increased his value exponentially.

However, the question has to be asked about the affect of having a less sure handed first baseman on the growth of Starlin Castro. The kid is still somewhat erratic with his throws, and having Derrek Lee there to cull some of the bad ones took some of the pressure off the youngster. Dunn’s a question mark over there.

Another possible negative is his age. He’s 30 this season, which isn’t over the hill by any means. However, if Dunn’s looking for a big 4-5 year deal, that would put him into his mid-30s which will likely be declining years for him. We’ve already seen enough of decline years on the Cubs the past two seasons.

The Verdict

I think you have to go after Dunn if you want to compete in 2011. If the Cubs decide to cut bait and play for 2012, then you can wait it out and hope to sign one of the big 3 first baseman (Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder). This strategy is inherently risky, as they all three could easily re-sign with their current teams, or be traded and extended by their new team.

The only way Dunn makes sense, however, is if he is willing to accept a 3 year deal with a 4th option year at most. We can’t have any more money tied up in old players who aren’t producing, and the new face of Cubs contracts can start this summer with Adam Dunn.

Derrek Lee’s Haul

Today, the Cubs moved Derrek Lee to Atlanta in exchange for three minor league pitchers.

Let’s look at what we got back.

Robinson Lopez

Lopez is a 19 year old right handed pitcher who was signed by the Braves in 2009.  In his first season in professional ball in 2009, he posted a 1.29 ERA with a 1.089 WHIP in 11 appearances (48.2 IP). He also had a very solid 3.5 K/BB.

In 2010, Lopez has struggled to a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP. The reasons are simple; he’s walking just over 4 batters per nine innings and striking out only 6.8 per nine.

Reports say that Lopez has a very good fastball, touching 96 mph. His secondary pitches are lacking, but he’s only 19 and the Cubs farm system has been good at developing young power arms (See: Archer, Chris). At worst, Lopez projects to be a decent to good reliever, but don’t sleep on this kid. He could end up as an effective starting pitcher when all is said and done.

Tyrelle Harris

Harris was the 19th round pick of the Braves in the 2009 draft, and has been impressive since starting his professional career. The 23 year old hasn’t given up a single home run in 67 innings pitched, and has a 2.42 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over that span. He is exclusively a reliever, and could be a fairly useful piece in the future.

Jeffrey Lorick

Lorick is a lefty reliever that the Braves took in the 20th round of the 2009 draft. He’s been pitching in high-A ball this year and has been very solid. He’s got a 2.24 ERA and 1.223 WHIP between A and High-A ball this year.

Lorick could also end up being a useful reliever, but he’s probably farther away than the other two coming back in this deal.

Overall, this was a good deal for Jim Hendry and the Cubs. Lee’s not likely to come back to Chicago after this season, so getting anything of use for him is a plus.

Cubs Deal Fontenot to Giants

Today, Mike Fontenot was traded to the San Francisco Giants in a deal that sent minor leaguer, Evan Crawford to the Cubs.

Fontenot was traded to the Cubs in the deal that sent Sammy Sosa to Baltimore, and he has been on the big league team since 2007, with his best year coming in 2008, when he hit .305/.395/.514 with 9 homers and 40 RBI in 119 games.

Fontenot came into the 2009 season as the starter, but his stay there was long. He struggled to perform in both of the last two seasons and will now join the team the Cubs play against tonight, in San Francisco.

Evan Crawford used to be an infielder, but the Giants moved him to the outfield. He is athletic, but has yet to fill out his frame and develop any kind of power. This move was likely just to move some salary around since Fontenot was a Super 2 Arbitration player this year.

In a corresponding move, minor league middle infielder Darwin Barney was called up from Triple – A Iowa and will be in uniform tonight.

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